From Newsgroup: rec.games.pinball

I spotted this posting in another Usenet list and feel it is an
outstanding explanation of what our health professionals are trying to prevent. The math is basic and irrefutable...

--------------------(quote)-----------------------
From: david eather <eathDELETEer@tpg.com.au>
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design

I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with
signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves
being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments
have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins
data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand
deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been
reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK. Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number (using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...
-------------------(end quote)---------------

Thank you David!

Stay safe my friends!

John
--
(Please post followups or tech inquiries to the USENET newsgroup)
John's Jukes Ltd.
MOVED to #7 - 3979 Marine Way, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5J 5E3
(604)872-5757 (Pinballs, Jukes, Video Games)
www.flippers.com
"Old pinballers never die, they just flip out."
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.pinball

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 1:23:18 AM UTC-4, John Robertson wrote:

I spotted this posting in another Usenet list and feel it is an
outstanding explanation of what our health professionals are trying to prevent. The math is basic and irrefutable...

--------------------(quote)-----------------------

I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK. Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number (using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...
-------------------(end quote)---------------

Thank you David!

Stay safe my friends!

John
--
(Please post followups or tech inquiries to the USENET newsgroup)
John's Jukes Ltd.
MOVED to #7 - 3979 Marine Way, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5J 5E3
(604)872-5757 (Pinballs, Jukes, Video Games)
www.flippers.com
"Old pinballers never die, they just flip out."

no matter how many deaths from cars, you cant compare it. first, its not contagious, those victims will not infect the staff and vistors. second, many of those victims wont linger in hospitals , using finite resources. 3rd, that number is spread out over a year. imagine if all the people who died in car accidents happended in the same month. it still wouldnt be as bad as covid, due to the lingering and contaigion. im betting most of the protesters are "creationists", yet they are textbook examples of darwinism. the best are the ones in full hazmat gear with signs that say hoax. laughable if it wasnt so serious. science and learning are denigrated, ignorance is embraced, we are entering a new dark ages.
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.pinball

On Tuesday, April 21, 2020 at 12:23:18 AM UTC-5, John Robertson wrote:

I spotted this posting in another Usenet list and feel it is an
outstanding explanation of what our health professionals are trying to prevent. The math is basic and irrefutable...

--------------------(quote)-----------------------
From: david eather <eathDELETEer@tpg.com.au>
Newsgroups: sci.electronics.design

I was watching the news and saw some protesters were running around with signs say corona virus was "fake news". How can that be with mass graves being dug and filled in New York 40 thousand people dead in the US.

I get the point that 40,000 is just the same as a years deaths due to
car accidents. As a kid I used to be amazed at Australia's yearly death
toll on the roads (and people still drive!). But the various governments have worked to make rods safer, cars safer etc and now I just shrug my shoulders "meh, death toll used to be much higher"

Anyway back to point I did some maths on corona virus using John Hopkins data.

This might be a few days old.

USA has 735 thousand confirmed cases of corona virus and 33.9 thousand deaths. Those figures are fairly sold. Some cases would not have been reported and people dying of pneumonia being untested for covid19
somewhat cancelling unreported cases out. And EXACT, perfect value won't
be much different to those here.

So the death toll is

(1) 4.69%

which is the situation with some hospitals over-stretched and other OK. Thankfully it is not like Spain or Italy at closer to 15%.

Now, if you do nothing, the only thing to prevent the spread is "herd immunity" which occurs when an infected person can (probability) only
pass the bug on to less that one person because every one else has
either had it and have antibodies or have been vaccinated and so also
have antibodies. Now the question is how many people is that?

The lowest figure I have for the R (how many people it will spread to)
of this virus is 2.5 and the highest is 5. The crude way to find out
what percentage of the population will get infected is (R-1)/R or with
the numbers above

(2) 60% at best case
(3) 80% at worst case

That means for the American population of 331 million between

(4) 198 million infections best case
(5) 265 million infections worst case

and this will result in (using the USA figures and assuming the
hospitals will not become overwhelmed)

(6) 9 million deaths best case
(7) 12 million deaths worse case

That's not fake news. That is counting the bodies and the sick. Makes
the road toll look like a joke.

And if overwhelmed USA could be looking at about three times that number (using Italy's and Spain's death rate).

Potentially 27 million to 36 million deaths.

Yea, I want my rights to do whatever I like, but I suspect if I
accidentally infect someone you know and they die, you will want to sue
me and want the police to charge me with manslaughter.

And of course death is forever...
-------------------(end quote)---------------

Thank you David!

Stay safe my friends!

John
--
(Please post followups or tech inquiries to the USENET newsgroup)
John's Jukes Ltd.
MOVED to #7 - 3979 Marine Way, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5J 5E3
(604)872-5757 (Pinballs, Jukes, Video Games)
www.flippers.com
"Old pinballers never die, they just flip out."

I'm on the other side of that horseshit (the Tom Hanks version anyway). Wicked 20 days, but hey, I lost 25 pounds....that came back with a vengeance. Now I walk among the mortals as....
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.pinball

I don't agree with that... right now we're at ~ 50K deaths... and except for NY/NJ/MI and perhaps a few others, new cases are flat or falling. We will most likely have a revamp of higher numbers when folks get back to work and back outside... however that being said, we don't know how bad that may be, and we also know that as many as 15% of folks have already been exposed but not counted as having the disease, so that 5% death count is more like .5%...
Extrapolating current numbers (and perhaps the next few weeks will tell a better story), I would be surprised if we hit 150K deaths in this country. Just my 2c.
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From Newsgroup: rec.games.pinball

On 4/26/20 5:53 PM, Don O Team EM! wrote:

I don't agree with that... right now we're at ~ 50K deaths... and except for NY/NJ/MI and perhaps a few others, new cases are flat or falling. We will most likely have a revamp of higher numbers when folks get back to work and back outside... however that being said, we don't know how bad that may be, and we also know that as many as 15% of folks have already been exposed but not counted as having the disease, so that 5% death count is more like .5%...

Extrapolating current numbers (and perhaps the next few weeks will tell a better story), I would be surprised if we hit 150K deaths in this country. Just my 2c.

On Sunday's paper, it said that MD, VA and DC rates of increase are
going down. But the numbers are going up (at a slower rate).

The numbers I remember were that we used to be doubling every 3 days.
Now it is taking 9 days to double.

One of the USA guidelines are that hospitalization has to be decreasing
for 14 straight days, I believe.

Of course, we need far more available and faster testing in order to be
able to track down and isolate infected people to minimize transfer.
That is taking far too long to occur.

It would be nice to have reliable antibody testing, too. One scientist
said that some of the unapproved but allowed tests has a 50% false
positive rate.

Under pressure, the US FDA (I think it is the FDA and not the CDC) is
allowing antibody tests to be used that have not be validated.

--
http://orcalcoast.com/
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