FOUS11 KWBC 090736
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 09 2024 - 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024


...Colorado Rockies...
Day 1...

The historic winter storm that has brought multiple feet of snow to
many parts of the Southern Rockies and central High Plains will
wane quickly Saturday morning as the low becomes vertically stacked
and occludes, shutting off the primary moisture feed. Despite this
occurring, the primary upper low will remain intense, and the
strong deformation axis responsible for the heavy snow banding
overnight will pivot across north-central CO into southeast WY
before slowly eroding through the day. The thermal profile to the
northeast is less conducive for snow, but some dynamic cooling due
to strong ascent could still result in some modest snowfall through
early Saturday. However, the greatest potential for any additional
significant accumulations will be across the higher terrain of
north-central CO, including the Park Range where WPC probabilities
for an additional 4+ inches of snow are 50-70%.


...Northwest...
Days 2-3...

A potent upper trough digging from the Gulf of Alaska will dig
towards Washington State, but likely come ashore over British
Columbia Monday night. This will have a two-pronged effect of
causing broad height falls across the Pacific and Interior
Northwest (height anomalies -1 sigma according to NAEFS) while also
causing some pinched broadly cyclonic flow into the Northwest
CONUS. Together, this will drive a corridor of moderate IVT for
which CW3E probabilities from the ECENS and GEFS suggest will
exceed 500 kg/m/s as an AR surges onshore, accompanied by a surface
cold front advecting eastward. This will result in a stripe of
heavy precipitation ahead of the cold front, with a secondary wave
of precipitation following in its wake embedded within the
confluent mid-level flow.

Snow levels ahead of the front will be generally 6000-7000 ft, so
the initial precipitation should fall as primarily rain except in
the highest terrain of the Cascades. However, as snow levels crash
behind the front and precipitation persists, accumulating snow will
occur as low as 3500-4000 ft by the end of the period. This will
result in significant snowfall in the WA/OR Cascades and the
Olympics, with increasing pass-level impacts possible.
Additionally, by Tuesday morning /end of D3/ precipitation falling
as snow is expected to spread as far east as the Northern Rockies
and areas around Yellowstone NP.

WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow on D2 are confined
to the far northern WA Cascades and the higher terrain around Mt.
Rainier where they are above 70%. By D3, snowfall expands along the
Cascades and as far south as the Sierra, while additionally
pushing inland to the Northern Rockies. WPC probabilities for more
than 6 inches D3 are above 70% along the Cascades and near Mt.
Shasta, where 1-2 feet of snow is likely in the highest terrain.
Elsewhere, WPC probabilities are as high as 30-50%, highest near
the Salmon River and Sawtooth Ranges of Idaho. With snow levels
falling, impactful pass-level snow is also likely, especially at
some of the higher passes like Washington Pass and Stevens Pass in
the WA Cascades.

The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than
10 percent.

Weiss

...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current
Key Messages below...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png

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