AWUS01 KWNH 092022
FFGMPD
FLZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1099
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092018Z - 092345Z

SUMMARY...Numerous areas of flash flooding are expected through
00Z across the central FL Peninsula, including the I-4 corridor
between Tampa and Orlando, and eastward toward Cape Canaveral.
Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr along with 3-hr rainfall totals of
3 to 6 inches are likely.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Milton continued to approach the west coast
of FL at 20Z, located about 100 miles SW of Tampa per the 20Z
update from NHC. Dry air wrapping around from the west into the
southern side of the circulation has contributed to relatively
warmer cloud tops on IR imagery in the southern semicircle.
Reflectivity data from KTBW confirmed this with a lack of higher
dBZ values south of the center. Meanwhile, several bands of heavy
rain have been merging into a broader area of torrential rainfall
between the eye and the southern portion of Tampa Bay. To the
east, an impressive and long-lived outer rain band was located
from eastern Lake Okeechobee into the I-4 corridor, near a remnant
frontal boundary which extended west-east across the central
Peninsula between roughly a SRQ to MLB line with the elevated
portion of this convergence axis just north. The low level
convergence axis delineated MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg to its
south from values less than 500 J/kg to its north. Aloft, water
vapor imagery inferred strongly diffluent/divergent flow aloft
over the Peninsula between a strong jet max over the Mid-Atlantic
coast and Milton.

As Milton continues to approach the coast, while gradual weakening
is still anticipated, an axis of very heavy rain is likely to set
up just north of the center from the Tampa Bay vicinity, eastward
toward Orlando and Cape Canaveral, following the low level
convergence axis. This is confirmed via experimental WoFS output
showing 50-80 percent probabilities of exceeding 5 inches from the
19Z cycle over Pinellas County, and 40-60 percent probabilities
farther east into Polk County through 00Z. Rainfall rates within
this axis are expected to peak in the 2 to 3 in/hr range within
areas of training but with localized hourly totals in excess of 3
inches possible along with 3-hour totals in the 3-6 inch range.
Given the expected location of this heavy rainfall axis
overlapping high density population centers including Tampa and
Orlando, significant areas of flash flooding with life-threatening
impacts will be possible.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29198115 29148080 28008013 27118000 26968067
27228147 26898244 27358297 27828305 28478277
28758243 28978184
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