Summary...A powerful outer rain band is expected to reach the west
coast of FL over the next 1-2 hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+
in/hr will be possible where training occurs and flash flooding
will be likely. Additional banding and heavy rain is likely to
continue into the mid-afternoon, increasing the coverage of flash
flooding.
Discussion...15Z radar imagery from KTBW showed an outer rain band
ahead of Hurricane Milton just offshore from Englewood to Naples.
This powerful outer rain band has been edging closer to the coast
and is expected to reach the coastal population centers from south
to north over the next 1-2 hours. Due to the slow eastward
movement of this band, peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have been
estimated at 2 to 2.5 in/hr offshore. As Milton continues to track northeastward toward the west coast of FL through 21Z, this outer
band is expected to rotate inland and northward, bringing rainfall
rates of 2-3 in/hr at times along the coast from near Tampa Bay to
Charlotte Harbor.
The outer rain band will likely followed by a temporary lull in
heavy rainfall as it moves through, given a minimum in colder
cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery between the band and the
center of Milton. However, additional heavy rain will develop as
subsequent bands associated with Milton form and move ashore. The
15Z NHC advisory from NHC indicates Milton is moving toward the
northeast at 15 kt, with the center forecast to be located about
30 miles off the coast of Sarasota County at 00Z. Areas along the
coast will be must susceptible to flash flooding over the next few
hours given the urban nature and wet antecedent conditions
including 1-2 inches of rain since midnight. Peak additional
rainfall through 21Z of 3-5 inches will be possible with areas of
flash flooding becoming likely.