From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Monday, July 08, 2024 08:37:00
ACUS01 KWNS 081244
SWODY1
SPC AC 081242
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes will be possible today, in association with
Tropical Cyclone Beryl, from southeast Texas into northwest
Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas.
...East Texas/Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
Tropical Cyclone Beryl will continue moving north across
southeast/east TX through the day before moving north-northeast into
the Ark-La-Tex tonight per the latest NHC forecast. The extensive
rain shield has yielded intermittent periods of transient mini
supercell structures within the convective bands early this morning.
Thinking this trend will continue during the day across
southeast/east TX into western portions of LA. Ample low-level shear
for hodograph enlargement will reside over the right-front quadrant
of Beryl. Less certain will be the development of moderate buoyancy
within the rain shield. Nonetheless, some evolution into more
coherent convective banding is expected during the diurnal heating
cycle (midday into the early evening) when the risk for several
supercell tornadoes will probably be greatest. An isolated tornado
threat should continue through the evening and into the overnight
period as this risk shifts northward coincident with the movement of
Beryl.
...Southwest Texas...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move across west Texas
today. South of the front in the vicinity of Big Bend, surface
dewpoints are likely to be from the mid 50s to the lower 60s F. As
surface temperature warm across this relatively moist airmass and
yield moderate buoyancy. Increasing low-level convergence along the
front during the afternoon should enable scattered thunderstorms to
develop. A couple of the stronger storms may result in a localized
hail/wind risk before this activity weakens this evening.
...Northern NM...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough from the
Upper Midwest extending southwestward into the CO/NM vicinity. A
belt of moderate north-northwest flow will gradually pivot away from
the region during the day. However, a relatively moist airmass via
easterly upslope/post-frontal flow will combine with strong heating
to yield around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few stronger storms may develop
with a possible localized hail/wind risk for a few hours late this
afternoon.