• Heavy rain/Flooding OK

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Sunday, July 07, 2024 18:28:00
    AWUS01 KWNH 072118
    FFGMPD
    OKZ000-080100-

    Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
    518 PM EDT Sun Jul 07 2024

    Areas affected...Central and Southwestern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

    Valid 072117Z - 080100Z

    SUMMARY...Training storms along I-40 in west central Oklahoma are
    producing local rates approaching 3 inches per hour. Flash
    flooding is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Training storms have developed along a stationary
    boundary across west central Oklahoma this afternoon. Drier air
    moving southward north of the front is colliding with much more
    moist and unstable air streaming northward out of Texas. The
    result is a stationary boundary where the 2 air masses are
    clashing...resulting in training thunderstorms roughly right along
    I-40 west of Oklahoma City.

    While the storms are drifting eastward with time, CAMs guidance
    despite poorly handling the ongoing convection suggest that the
    storms will gradually shift southward with time, which is why
    portions of southwest Oklahoma are included in the threat area.
    Certainly short-term the threat is along I-40 from Elk City to
    Oklahoma City, but expect the typical way storms evolve in this
    environment is to "follow the instability, so they should
    gradually begin to drift south with time. Further, the drier air
    to the north should also begin to shift the frontal boundary south.

    Urban and small stream flash flooding is the primary threat with
    these storms, with the urban threat increasing should stronger
    storms make their way into the Oklahoma City metro.

    Wegman

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

    LAT...LON 35719726 35629696 35339685 34729692 34409801
    34499938 34989979 35669957 35699809
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