SUMMARY...Flash flooding likely as storms that have a history of
producing 3 inch/hour rainfall rates move over a portion of
western West Virginia with FFGs as low as 1.5 in/hour.
DISCUSSION...A small but very potent slow moving line of storms
has developed along the Ohio River between Ohio and West Virginia
ahead of an upper level shortwave, evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms have been growing upscale but will be moving into an
area hit by some storms as recently as yesterday. PWATs ahead of
the storms are as high as 2 inches with SBCAPE as high as 2,500
J/kg. Thus, all of the ingredients are in place for the storms to
remain strong as they track northeast up the Ohio River.
While CAMs seem to have the storms resolved in the right place,
they are not doing well with the storm motion...as recent radar
imagery shows they're generally moving northeast along the Ohio
River, rather than east into West Virginia as most of the CAMs
guidance shows. Expect they will maintain themselves for the next
few hours as all the ingredients necessary for the storms'
maintenance remain in place along their track. Later this evening,
loss of daytime heating should result in the storms' weakening.