Mesoscale Discussion 1013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024
Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE...
central/western PA...NJ...and NY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 271553Z - 271800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2
hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are
possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening.
DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north
ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability
will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where
dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent
into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting
organized bands of convection is already in place across the region.
A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection
increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely
remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and
backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into
eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this
area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard
through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will
likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger
destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads
the region.