ACUS11 KWNS 021929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021928
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76...

Valid 021928Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern
Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon.
Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado
may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this
afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal
trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting
to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of
northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some
clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually
warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The
low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary
from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface
dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer
shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail
threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise,
favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2,
will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be
sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of
the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging
winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current
observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring
downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into
parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be
needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75.

..Gleason.. 04/02/2024

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378
38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861
38058774
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