360
WTNT33 KNHC 072031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...

...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A
Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
Bluefields.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
* Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
* Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
should monitor the progress of Julia.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. Julia is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.
Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over
Central America by Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is
expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over
San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of
Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland
on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
watch areas Sunday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through early Monday:

San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
inches, isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
through this weekend.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.

A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
accompany the storm surge near the coast.

SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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