• ADVISORY: TS Julia 6

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Friday, October 07, 2022 18:36:00
    360
    WTNT33 KNHC 072031
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    500 PM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

    ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NICARAGUA COAST...

    ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
    RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.0N 74.7W
    ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM N OF BARRANQUILLA COLOMBIA
    ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of Nicaragua has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a
    Hurricane Warning from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas. A
    Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Puerto Cabezas to
    the Honduras/Nicaragua border and south of Laguna de Perlas to
    Bluefields.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
    * Nicaragua from Laguna de Perlas to Puerto Cabezas

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
    * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Nicaragua south of Laguna de Perlas to Bluefields
    * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
    tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
    preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras
    should monitor the progress of Julia.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
    located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 74.7 West. Julia is
    moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward motion
    with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday
    night. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
    pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday
    evening and then reach the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning.
    Julia or its remnants will then turn west-northwestward over
    Central America by Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast while Julia moves across the southwestern
    Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and the system is
    expected to become a hurricane by the time it passes near or over
    San Andres and Providencia Islands and reaches the coast of
    Nicaragua. Quick weakening is anticipated after Julia moves inland
    on Sunday, and it is likely to become a remnant low or dissipate by
    Monday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
    mainly to the northeast of the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
    San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by Saturday evening,
    with tropical storm conditions beginning by Saturday afternoon.
    Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
    within the hurricane warning area Sunday morning, with tropical
    storm conditions beginning by Saturday night. Hurricane conditions
    are possible along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane
    watch areas Sunday morning.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua
    within the tropical storm warning areas by Saturday night or early
    Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
    Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

    RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
    accumulations through early Monday:

    San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
    Eastern Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
    The rest of Nicaragua, southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador...
    4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
    Pacific basins of Costa Rica and western Panama...3 to 6 inches,
    isolated 10 inches.
    Northern Honduras, southern Belize, central Guatemala...4 to 7
    inches, isolated 12 inches.

    This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
    through this weekend.

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
    much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
    coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
    Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
    accompanied by large and damaging waves.

    A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet
    above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of Nicaragua in
    areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will likely
    accompany the storm surge near the coast.

    SURF: Swells generated by Julia are expected to reach Jamaica
    tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and
    portions of the coast of Central America late Saturday into Sunday.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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